Intel's Ultrabook initiative could start to pay heavy dividends in the next few years, according to IHS, formerly known as iSuppli. In a report issued Friday, the research firm predicts that the thin-and-light laptops will account for more than 40 percent of all notebook shipments by 2015.
"To compete with media tablets, notebook PCs must become sexier and more appealing to consumers," said IHS analyst Matthew Wilkins, in a statement accompanying the report. "With media tablets having already reversed the expansion of the previously fast-growing netbook platform, PC makers now are keenly aware that the notebook must evolve to maintain market growth and relevance.
"Enter the ultrabook, which borrows some of the form-factor and user-interface advantages of the media tablet to enhance the allure of the venerable notebook," Wilkins said.
IHS projects rapid growth for the ultrabook category, which the research firm said accounted for less than 1 percent of notebook shipments in 2010, and projected to account just under 2 percent of the market this year. But ultrabooks will make up nearly 12 percent of laptops in 2012, according to IHS, and the category's penetration will shoot up to better than 28 percent in 2013, nearly 38 percent in 2014, and about 43 percent by 2015.
Intel has led the ultrabook charge, touting its "new" category at the Intel Developer Forum in September—though Apple could be credited for laying the groundwork for a thin-and-light notebook revolution with its MacBook Air, the first edition of which was released way back in January 2008.
IHS notes Intel's role in the ultrabook push, but the research firm describes the category not as an Intel-only affair, but rather a generic one for "extremely light and thin" notebooks that measure in at "less than 0.8 inches in thickness." The chip giant, however, has been clear in its intention to only brand notebooks as Intel-approved Ultrabooks if they meet more detailed specifications, not least of which is having Intel chips inside.
To qualify as an Intel-branded Ultrabook, a 13-inch notebook must be no more than 18 millimeters thick, while those with larger screens can be up to 21mm thick. Other requirements issued by Intel include Wi-Fi connectivity, battery life of at least five hours during active use, and the clincher—the inclusion of Intel Rapid Start technology that uses flash storage embedded in a laptop's motherboard to enable quick boot times.
So in other words, if the category does grow at the pace IHS thinks it will, this could start to get pretty confusing. Research firms like IHS may use lower-case terminology to define the growing ultrabook category as open to all manufacturers of ultra-thin-and-light laptops, but Intel is likely to stick to its definition of big-"U" Ultrabooks, and that's not going to include those with chips from Advanced Micro Devices, et. al.
Just to bring that point home, future editions of Apple's MacBook Air, the original "ultrabook" for all intents and purposes, may not qualify as "Ultrabooks" if Apple doesn't play along with whatever future specifications Intel sets for the category. Apple being Apple, that seems like a major clash that's almost destined to happen.
Intel has also said that pricing for Ultrabooks would be optimally set at $999 in the early going, though the chip giant isn't strictly dictating the amount that its OEM partners can charge for their Ultrabooks. The sub-$1,000 threshold already looks to be a difficult one for early Ultrabook makers to adhere to—Asus has set the price at $1,099 for the 13-inch Zenbook UX31, one of first products shipping in the Ultrabook category.
For more on Ultrabooks, here's what you need to know.
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